Winkinatcha

Morning/Early Afternoon SPI trade 010212

2012-02-01T12:23:00.002+11:00

Morning/Afternoon spi trade... not concentrating too much on the markets Durring SPI cash session as I have a day job during that time.

This trade was initially triggered by a stochastic dip below 5 (shown by blue arrow on stochastics)

Position added to as price approached and bounced off marked historical resistance (Dotted Redlines are inherited from the Hourly chart), Profit target caclulated as first historical upside resistance, coupled with price level where stochastics first hit that 5 OS level.

DAX Congestion

2012-01-31T22:00:00.003+11:00

I tried to short the dax over the last couple of hours to minimal profit...

Start of trade. looking for more shortside around 50%
Breakev n on red bar as stop

Stopped out

Blah Congestion...

Just One Good DAX Trick trade...

2012-01-30T23:16:00.003+11:00

When played well an opening trick trade for the DAX can pay ok.

This time it worked in my favour.
Buys are marked by green arrows Column of sells (red arrows) denotes where/when the trade was closed in profit.

The DAX trick trade is based on IGMarket data. They are market makers who often make prices on the underlying futures instruments even when said instruments are in cash close.

This MAY be the reason these trick trades seem viable.

The Gist of the Good DAX Trick trade is:

Mark the level of price on OPEN of the 18:10 AEDST 5 min bar...
Observe price at the open of the18:30 5 minute bar
trade in the opposite direction.
(meaning trade with the expectation that the 16:10 price will be hit.)
Profit target the original price level (less spread) at 16:10

If done well situations like tonight can be seen as opportunities to add appropriately as a trade goes against one, for some rather stellar returns.

Learning how to add appropriately I still don't have sorted but in this particular trade distracted myself for 30 minutes at a time between adding to the position.

By distracting myself whilst the position (eventually) came good I was able to reap full benefit of the trick trade.

By distracting myself as the position (initially) went against me, I was able to hold back from adding at inappropriate times.

Summary of SPI Trades and interday price machinations

2012-01-30T22:48:00.000+11:00

Summary of SPI Trades and interday price machinations

Complete marked up 5 min chart at end of day for SPI

This shows a bit of historical data from the previous trading session and includes (too much) detail of what I was looking at as day unfolded.

Badly enough, primarily due to that three position short stop out marked by the column of green up arrows, all trading for the day resulted in around 6 dollars in loss.
I've detailed a couple of trades as they occurred along with the analysis markings as they were placed on the charts

5 minute to the shortside Actual Trading not so well played

Another 5 minute trade on SPI

Intraday Trade 1 SPI

2012-01-30T11:11:00.003+11:00

As per the Downside trade plan mentioned in below post... Sold on Price break and close below 5 MA.
Ideal plan would be to open on three contrects sold seperately.
Profit take 1 on touch of 21 MA Wait for retest of 5ma to adjust stop
Profit take 2/ move stop on Red Trendline touch.

Final target for 3 bottom of range/ B/e +

Actual Trade:

Note to self.. When using multiple contracts, open each one as an individual position so stops and limits can be set per contract.

Details of intraday plan were too slow... so it wasn't there to follow while price action did its stuff
So trade went as follows
Bought two at marked level closed 1 on 21 MA, closed 2 too early on a profit limit on original contract.

Did not start with sell of three so Only 9 points +ve.

Price action 10 mins later:

Note a more solid trade plan would have seen a better capture :)

Looking at stochastics as we come to the bottom of the range mentioned in the start of the post... on this instrument and this timespan, using an os level of 5 is often a good entry level for a bounce trade...

Resistance appproaching... Stochs in OS... hmmmm longside soon? :)

Initial downside tradeplan target complete

SPI 5 min at Midday

SPI Hrly at midday

Top Down Analysis 290112

2012-01-29T22:57:00.000+11:00

SPI
Weekly big Picture

Since the initial decline starting in 2007,,, the index has made a weak bounce and failed to hold above 50% of the initial decline, since the March 2009

Current MACD and Stochastic cycles at this time suggest Upside is still valid... and to satisfy the potential of these indicators another 700 points from current is possible.

SPI Daily Big Picture

Price is currently contained in a mildly upsloping channel...marked in black and drawn on the weekly.

Price action since the October lows Could be described as being in a pennant or triangle...The Green Arrow shows the length of the initial price surge..
If a pennant or triangle, the breaking of the marked red trendlines seems to suggest upwards movement will enventuate.

Stochastics are high in the overbought area but there is room for an extreme...
Stochastics are hinting some caution to the upside with a lower High near the exrteme overbought area...

SPI Hourly

Price has been making a steady advance and momentum is weakening
The advancing structure is overlapping...
Personally I beleive price is biding its time before a rapid move in either direction... Right now I beleive that rapid direction has a high chance to be up.

Between 4500 and 4700 is my current target upside.

Downside,... god bless us all if the current congestion (last 6 months) is setting up for a ne leg down in the second half of 2011.

Counting Daily SPI Bars... n Symmetry n stuff

2011-11-16T23:25:00.001+11:00

Taking a squizz at the SPI Daily...

17 bars on one side of the peak, 17 bars just completed on t'other...

Few hundred points Up or Down in the next coupla days?

Ref previous post for the direction I'm reckoning...

Nothing is certain... Just sayin'

;)

SPI - Three Peaks Domed House... Domed House Three Peaks

2011-11-14T07:05:00.001+11:00

The three peaks domed house pattern, as found n documented by George Lindsay in the mid 1900's (which included a bunch of iterations from BEFORE that time) appears to be taken by the majority of anlaysts as beeing a DJIA only pattern.

Yet... on the SPI or futures contract for the ASX200 index (Australian top 200 companies by market capitalisation) over the last couple of years, this 28 point complex pattern appears to have occurred.

I did a bit of a "final Summary" of this occurrence in this post here, most interesting thing to me being that a predictive part of the pattern, that the high would occur at a set time after the halfway or 14th point of the pattern pretty much panned out, the predicted time for the high was ONE WEEK before the actual high... out by 1 week over 100 plus weeks of pattern... that's a pretty good margin of error in my book.

Bulkowski, at his pattern site, goes into a bit of detail about George Lindsay's pattern...

At the very bottom of Bulkowski's description, there is a mention of a mirror pattern, the Domed house 3 peaks...
Another George Lindsay pattern.

Here's the chart for that pattern from bulkowski's site...

and here's the current daily chart for the SPI

Being a futures contract (and being a market maker's representation of a futures contract with 24 hr data) extremes at various points are pretty extreme. So bearing that in mind, and looking slightly crosseyed at this chart, I reckon a correlation between point 28 on the bukowski/lindsay chart and the SPI chart can be seen.

Looking at the current spi Daily chart as a LINE chart... and with a bit of license...

It is not impossible that we could maybe, sorta, ish, be looking at price embarking on that mirror pattern Domed House 3 Peaks now... Suggesting perhaps that Point 2 of the mirror pattern MAY be in place. If so, rough comparison with the equally rough Bulkowski/Lindsay Chart chart suggests price is due for a bit of a splurge back up to the high 4900s in the next few months... to Point three... And so forth as below, if this mirror pattern plays out...

This means that a major war or calamatous natural disaster should break out or occur around about August 2012...

(Just kidding... but hmmmmm if it happens, remember you heard it first here :) )

I aint the only analyst suggesting that price is on an upsurge...
... n here's some other stuff which MAY support the conjecture...

Here's the Daily SPI (IGMarkets representation) looking at localised price.

First up, Ellipse on MACD...

That was a Buy Signal for this timespan... Higher lows on MACD whilst Price made lower lows, followed by a break up and hold above the zero line.

Now according to my esoteric MACD analysis, this trend UP as per the daily continues until an oppposite SELL signal appears via the MACD.

(opposite being Lower High on MACD whilst price makes a Higher High.
With current levels occurring on price and bearing the position of the MACD in mind, it is not impossible that a quick splort to the upside by price, say up to that dashed red thin line representing the 200 period moving average, would satisfy a sell signal... Round about the 4500 level...

BUT...at this stage I am contending it is unlikely that that will be the level at which price stalls n fails... sure a stall can be expected, that 200 period MA is a biggy in the minds of a lot of traders.

Coupla things...

A declining 200ma like we currently have, is oft an initial barrier BUT also tends to be just that.. an initial barrier and then whammo price pops through and remains abovce the 200 MA n in fact runs away from it.

The ellipsed area on price, and all them Arrows populating the Ellipse are there to highlight a potential of a symetrical pattern occurring... with the Mirror image being centred around the time area of the head of the dashed Horizontal Blue arrow.

The Green Mostly vertical arrows give an Equal Measure Move for a potential upper price area based on the leftmost Green arrow.. and the Solid Blue gives a rough Time based idea of WHEN this upper level might occur.

All HIGH CONJECTURE...

the thick horizontal light blue line on price marks the bottom of a purty strong resistance area... with the current level of the 200 MA at an even stronger historical restance area that was bounced off three times (march, June n July of this year) befor the break down in august this year...

Anyways... Here's the potential I am seeing, relating back to an oft occurring pattern of "mine" the "elongated S"

Kinda sorta something like this (as marked by dotted red lines)

So Santa Rally till around 3 days B4 Christmas... Nice :)

;)

SPI view Fri3011AEDST

2011-09-30T08:04:00.002+10:00

SPI overview...

Note I am using the charts provided by IGMarkets so they are a market maker's representation of the underlying spi (ASX200 futures) contract... as such prices will be at different levels to the actual contract but movements are the same)

Hourly Chart

After a minor high from the start of september, price has completed 5 distinct waves down (Red Wave Counts in Purple Channel) during this month.

Price action during this down trend has been corrective, with overlapping highs and lows.

The bottom of the 5th wave gave a MACD based Uptrend signal which would be consistant with termination of this trend.

In an idealised world, 5 waves down would be followed by 3 waves up or an ABC style Correction to the main trend.

Localised Price Action (Hourly Zoom)

An inital strong burst up from the 5th wave low and the MACD Uptrend signal has been followed by a corrective 5 wave down trend (small red wave counts in Black Downsloping channel).
A MACD based Continuation signal appears to have occurred in the last two trading days, suggesting completion of a B wave. This continuation signal has occurred at a retracemetn level of between 50 an 61.8 percent retrace of the marked A wave, an oft good launching area for a wave C or wave 3 up.

Final action on the US markets was strongly up in the last 2 hours.

This suggests that INITIALLY from futures open some s/t downsid will occur.

The 38.2 % retrace level , around 4000 on this chart appears to be an interesting level of support, as does the 4040 Resistance level, equivalent to the 23.6% Fibb retrace, roughly coincident with the marked black channel.

A friday combined with End of month could well see some great intraday volatility.

Good Luck n Let the games commence :)

;).

Three Peaks Domed House Pattern On SPI (Revisited)

2011-09-24T21:31:00.001+10:00

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

from late 2010 I began writing posts and bringing to peoples attention a very complex pattern called the three peaks domed house pattern that I conjectured was potentially playing out on the SPI... I kept following this pattern with sporadic updates from around point 10... search this blog for "Three Peaks Domed House" for all the posts...

I finally gave up on the thing around mid march, after point 22 appeared to break the pattern...

this (I think) was the last post on it === Last post here

Just prior to a dip in price which took out the perceived point 22

A rough mapped out conjecture I drew at the time was this

I JUST noticed something uncanny, looking specifically at the marked thin verticle line and brown arrow on this chart... via information on the pattern calculating from the low of point 14, the predicted high date would occur 7months and 10 to 12 days after that number 14 low... In reality the high occurred 7 months and 17 days after that date....

That's not too bad a margin of error considering this pattern was discovered by George Lindsay around the mid 1900s from his observations of the Dow Jones Industrial average, and this patttern had/has formed from early 2009 on the Australin ASX200
Anyways... check this Just renumbered daily chart

Full pattern:

And zoomed in a bit on th eleft hand side to elongate the y scale to fit in with the last conjecture shown From February 2011 above:

Personally, I think that is pretty Freakin amazing...

;)